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miaomiaoronger · 2021年01月24日

如何通过题目判断,是单尾还是双尾的分布?

问题如下:

Based on past research, Hansen selects the following independent variables to predict IPO initial returns:

Underwriter rank = 1–10, where 10 is highest rank

Pre-offer price adjustment (Expressed as a decimal) = (Offer price – Initial filing price)/Initial filing price

Offer size ($ millions) = Shares sold × Offer price

Fraction retained (Expressed as a decimal) = Fraction of total company shares retained by insiders

He also believes that for each 1 percent increase in pre-offer price adjustment, the initial return will increase by less than 0.5 percent, holding other variables constant. Hansen wishes to test this hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance.

Hansen collects a sample of 1,725 recent IPOs for his regression model.

\Hansen’s Regression Results Dependent Variable: IPO Initial Return (Expressed in Decimal Form, i.e., 1% = 0.01)

Selected Values for the t-Distribution (df = ∞)

The most appropriate null hypothesis and the most appropriate conclusion regarding Hansen’s belief about the magnitude of the initial return relative to that of the pre-offer price adjustment (reflected by the coefficient bj) are:

选项:

Null Hypothesis
Conclusion about bj(0.05 Level of Significance)
A.
H0: bj=0.5
Reject H0
B.
H0: bj≥0.5
Fail to reject H0
C.
H0: bj≥0.5
Reject H0

解释:

C is correct.

C To test Hansen’s belief about the direction and magnitude of the initial return, the test should be a one-tailed test. The alternative hypothesis is H1: bj<0.5b_j<0.5, and the null hypothesis is H0:bj0.5b_j\geq0.5 . The correct test statistic is: t = (0.435-0.50)/0.0202 = -3.22, and the critical value of the t-statistic for a one-tailed test at the 0.05 level is -1.645. The test statistic is significant, and the null hypothesis can be rejected at the 0.05 level of significance.

如何通过题目判断,是单尾还是双尾的分布?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年01月24日

同学你好,

判断单双尾要看备择假设。

本题题干描述“He also believes that for each 1 percent increase in pre-offer price adjustment, the initial return will increase by less than 0.5 percent”,根据这句话可以建立原假设H0: bj≥0.5,所以备择假设就是Ha:bj<0.5。

由此备择假设可知,拒绝域在左侧,为单尾拒绝域。

但如果备择假设是bj≠0.5,那么拒绝域就是在两侧,是双尾。

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