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爱飞的鱼d · 2021年01月11日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016010802000141

问题如下:

If relative to prior values of their respective indicators, the inventorysales ratio has risen, unit labor cost is stable, and real personal income has decreased, it is most likely that a peak in the business cycle:

选项:

A.

has occurred.

B.

is just about to occur.

C.

will occur sometime into the future.

解释:

A is correct.

Both inventory–sales and unit labor costs are lagging indicators that decline somewhat after a peak. Real personal income is a coincident indicator that by its decline shows a slowdown in business activity.

考点: economic indicators

解析:库存销售比和单位劳动力成本都是滞后指标,在经济见顶后有所下降。实际个人收入是一个同步的指标,它的下降表明商业活动有所放缓。综上所述,经济已经见顶,面临下行压力。

为什么不能选B正在发生呢? 之前有道题是说Inventory/Sale ratio 最高是在早期peak时,unit labor cost stable 不是也说明还没到recession吗?

1 个答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年01月11日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好,我们注意到库存销售比是滞后指标他还在上升,real personal income has decreased实际个人收入的下降说明目前经济将来会下行,b项的意思是说马上立刻就下行了,相对于c项不严谨。

 同学注意在CFA考试中,我们是选择最优选项。b项相对于c项而言过于绝对,属于次优


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