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大鱼 · 2020年12月04日

问一道题:NO.PZ201902210100000104 第4小题 [ CFA III ]

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问题如下:

Considering only the US, UK, and Euro markets, the most attractive duration-neutral, currency-neutral carry trade could be implemented as:

选项:

A.

Buy 3-year UK Gilts, Sell 3-year German notes, and enter a 6-month FX forward contract to pay EUR/receive GBP.

B.

Receive fixed/pay floating on a 3-year GBP interest rate swap and receive floating/pay fixed on a 3-year EUR interest rate swap.

C.

Buy the T-note futures contract and sell the German note futures contract for delivery in six months.

解释:

B is correct.

In order to be duration-neutral and currency-neutral, the trade must lend long/borrow short in one market and do the opposite (lend short/borrow long), with the same maturities, in another market. The best carry is obtained by lending long/borrowing short on the steepest curve and lending short/borrowing long on the flattest curve. The GBP curve is the steepest and the EUR curve is the flattest. The largest yield spread between these markets is 0.55% at the 3-year maturity, and the narrowest spread is 0.35% at the 6-month maturity. Hence, the best trade is to go long the GBP 3-year/short the EUR 3-year and long the EUR 6-month/short the GBP 6-month. This can be implemented in the swaps market by receiving 3-year fixed/paying 6-month floating in GBP and doing the opposite in EUR (receiving 6-month floating/paying 3-year fixed). The net carry is +0.10% = [(0.95% – 0.50%) + (0.15% – 0.40%)]/2 for six months.

A is incorrect. The FX forward position as stated (pay EUR/receive GBP) corresponds to implicitly borrowing EUR for six months and lending GBP for six months. Correct execution of the trade would require the opposite, receiving EUR and delivering GBP 6 months forward.

C is incorrect. This combination of futures positions does create a duration-neutral, currency neutral carry trade, but it is not the highest available carry. Since the T-note futures price reflects the pricing of the 5-year note as cheapest to deliver, the long position in this contract is equivalent to buying the 5-year Treasury and financing it for 6 months. This generates net carry of 0.275% = (1.95% – 1.40%)/2. Similarly, the short position in the German note futures is equivalent to being short the 5-year German note and lending the proceeds for 6 months, generating net carry of –0.225% = (0.15% – 0.60%)/2. The combined carry is 0.05%, half of what is available on the position in B.

请问B选项英镑和欧元两个carry trade 收益应该属于不同币种,为何可以直接相加?谢谢!

2 个答案
已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年12月04日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


“请问B选项英镑和欧元两个carry trade 收益应该属于不同币种,为何可以直接相加?”


这里算的是净息差收益,也就是只考虑到了息差收益,Net carry收益:

The net carry is +0.10% = [(0.95% – 0.50%) + (0.15% – 0.40%)]/2 for six months.


这里并没有考虑到汇率的变动。实际上总的净收益还需要额外考虑汇率,不过我们这种类型的题目,分析到Net carry就为止了。


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一只可爱的猪 · 2021年09月15日

老师,可以分析一下A和C吗

pzqa015 · 2021年09月16日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


A选项的currency forward应该是pay GBP,receiver Eur

C选项不是most attractive的。

这种duration neutral,currency neutral carry trade我们在steepn yield curve的国家做carry trade,也就是借短期,投长期;在flatten yield curve的国家做inverse carry trade,也就是投长期,借短期。

根据表1数据,EUR的spread=0.45%,UK的spread=0.6%,US的spread=0.55%,所以,应该在UK做carry trade,在German做inverse carry trade,所以C选项在USD做carry trade,在German国家做inverse carry trade不是最attractive的.

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!