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Feeling · 2020年11月25日

问一道题：NO.PZ201710200100000408

* 问题详情，请查看题干

问题如下：

8. Based on Exhibits 2 and 3 and the multistage RI model, Castovan should estimate the intrinsic value of TTCI to be closest to:

选项：

A.

€54.88.

B.

€83.01.

C.

€85.71.

解释：

C is correct.

Residual income per share for the next three years is calculated as follows.

Because Castovan forecasts that residual income per share will be constant into perpetuity, equal to Year 3 residual income per share, the present value of the terminal value is calculated using a persistence factor of 1.

Present value of terminal value = $\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}$

= $\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}$ =33.78

So, the intrinsic value of TTCI is then calculated as follows.

V0= $\frac{45.25+3.88}{1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}$ =85.71

第四年开始变化，我在第三年末划一刀，所以第三阶段我是用算成了PVRI4，即用RI4。

请问第四年开始变化，为什么是RI3？

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Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2020年11月27日

同学你好，之前说得不太清楚，我重新解释一下：

有两种做法，都是对的：

第一种，是和李老师上课讲得一致。因为ROE从第四年开始进入constant long-term阶段，所以根据你的说法，从第三年末切一刀，先求PVRI3=3.47/8.7%=39.89，然后再往前折三年，最后得出来的结论是85.79，有个尾差。

第二种：根据题干，The terminal value is based on an assumption that residual income per share will be constant from Year 3 into perpetuity. 说明RI3=RI4=RI5......适用于基础班229页第一种情况：PVRI(t-1)=RI(t-1)/r=RI(t)/r

这个题目RI从第三年开始不变，所以求第二年末的terminal value，即PVRI2=RI3/r，然后往前折两年。

上面两种做法都是对的。

这是基础班的原题，236页，如果我说的还不清楚，请直接听李老师的课吧。

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Feeling · 2020年11月27日

非常感谢，很详细了~

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2020年11月26日

同学你好，题目说从第四年开始（也就是第三年末），ROE会有变化。根据PVRI（t-1）=RI(t)/(1+R-W),RI(t)是第三年，那么PVRI求得就是第二年

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NO.PZ201710200100000408问题如下8. Baseon Exhibits 2 an3 anthe multistage RI mol, Castovshoulestimate the intrinsic value of TTto closest to:A.€54.88.B.€83.01.C.€85.71. C is correct.Resiincome per share for the next three years is calculatefollows.Because Castovforecasts thresiincome per share will constant into perpetuity, equto Ye3 resiincome per share, the present value of the terminvalue is calculateusing a persistenfactor of 1.Present value of terminvalue = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)28.54−(0.087×58.25)= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}(0.087)(1.087)23.47 =33.78 So, the intrinsic value of TTis then calculatefollows.V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71 没搞明白为什么单阶段模型里的PVRI可以用（ROE-r)*B0/(r-g)来计算，这道题多阶段模型的后面说了ROE=12%不变，r=8.7%不变，g也不变，为什么就不能用前面这个公式呢？

2024-10-01 20:35 1 · 回答

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