问题如下：
3. Using Withers’s assumptions for the H-model and the basic two-stage dividend discount model, the forecasted Ukon stock price at the end of the year 2021 for the H-model should be:
选项：
A.lower than the basic two-stage model.
B.the same as the basic two-stage model.
C.higher than the basic two-stage model
解释：
A is correct. During the first stage, the basic two-stage model has higher (i.e., 5%) growth than the H-model, in which growth is declining linearly from 5.0% to 3.5%. Higher growth rates result in higher forecasted dividends and stock prices at the beginning of the sustained growth phase. Because the long-term dividend growth rates are the same for both models, the difference in forecasted stock price arises from growth rate differences in the first stage.
Therefore, the dividend at the end of the first stage will be lower for the H-model than for the basic two-stage DDM, and the terminal value will be lower in the H-model than in the two-stage model. Specifically, the 2021 dividends will be
2.734 (i.e., 2.315 × 1.05 × 1.045 × 1.04 × 1.035) for the H-model versus 2.815 [i.e., 2.315 × (1.05)4] for the basic two-stage DDM.
我是直接通过画图得出的。
一个是一直保持较高的增长率，然后突然进入第二阶段。一个是线性下降进入第二阶段。
因此前者第一阶段最后一个div一定比后一个大，前者第一阶段的现金流也比第二个大。
所以就选了更大。
请问这样可以吗？
