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Steve Xu · 2020年11月22日

问一道题:NO.PZ2017121101000010 [ CFA III ]

问题如下:

A volatility trader observes that the VIX term structure is upward sloping. In particular, the VIX is at 13.50, the front-month futures contract trades at 14.10, and the second-month futures contract trades at 15.40. Assuming the shape of the VIX term structure will remain constant over the next three-month period, the trader decides to implement a trade that would profit from the VIX carry roll down. She will most likely purchase the:

选项:

A.

VIX and sell the VIX second- month futures.

B.

VIX and sell the VIX front- month futures.

C.

VIX front- month futures and sell the VIX second- month futures.

解释:

C is correct.

VIX futures converge to the spot VIX as expiration approaches, and the two must be equal at expiration. When the VIX futures curve is in contango and assuming volatility remains stable, the VIX futures will get “pulled” closer to the spot VIX, and they will decrease in price as they approach expiration. Traders calculate the difference between the front-month VIX futures price and the VIX as 0.60, and the spread between the front-month and the second-month futures is 1.30. Assuming that the spread declines linearly until settlement, the trader would realize roll-down gains as the spread decreases from 1.30 to 0.60 as the front-month futures approaches its expiration. At expiration, VIX futures are equal to the VIX, and the spread with the old second-month (and now the front- month) futures contract will be 0.60. Finally, since one cannot directly invest in the VIX, trades focusing on the VIX term structure must be implemented using either VIX futures or VIX options, so Answers A and B are not feasible.

请问如果将C选项修改一下,改为仅short two month的VIX futures,那么这个选项是对的吗? 我的问题主要在于为什么既要long 近月合约,又要short远月合约,仅short 2 month的这样不是综合的回报更高吗?谢谢!
1 个答案
已采纳答案

xiaowan_品职助教 · 2020年11月22日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好,

对于这道题来说,已经确定期限结构是不变的,那么只short two month VIX futures的确可以获得更多收益,相当于我们已经预知了未来的期货价格;

这道题给的选项更多是站在实际的操作角度出发,尽管目前认为期限结构不变,但我们不能预测未来,万一出现了突发情况导致VIX大幅上升,那么单边做空的风险就很大。


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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NO.PZ2017121101000010 问题如下 A volatility trar observes ththe VIX term structure is upwarsloping. In particular, the VIX is 13.50, the front-month futures contratras 14.10, anthe seconmonth futures contratras 15.40. Assuming the shape of the VIX term structure will remain constant over the next three-month perio the trar cis to implement a tra thwoulprofit from the VIX carry roll wn. She will most likely purchase the: A.VIX ansell the VIX secon month futures. B.VIX ansell the VIX front- month futures. C.VIX front- month futures ansell the VIX secon month futures. C is correct. VIX futures converge to the spot VIX expiration approaches, anthe two must equexpiration. When the VIX futures curve is in contango anassuming volatility remains stable, the VIX futures will get “pulle closer to the spot VIX, anthey will crease in prithey approaexpiration. Trars calculate the fferenbetween the front-month VIX futures prianthe VIX 0.60, anthe sprebetween the front-month anthe seconmonth futures is 1.30. Assuming ththe spreclines linearly until settlement, the trar woulrealize roll-wn gains the sprecreases from 1.30 to 0.60 the front-month futures approaches its expiration. expiration, VIX futures are equto the VIX, anthe sprewith the olseconmonth (annow the front- month) futures contrawill 0.60. Finally, sinone cannot rectly invest in the VIX, tras focusing on the VIX term structure must implementeusing either VIX futures or VIX options, so Answers A anB are not feasible.中文解析这里考察的是“The VIX carry roll wn”的知识点 首先我们需要注意的一点是,VIX是不能直接进行买卖的,所以A和B中说直接purchase VIX直接排除掉。(考试的时候也是,看到这种直接买卖VIX的表述,不用思考直接pass)C对应的是purchase VIX front- month futures ansell theVIX secon month futures.是说买一个月的VIX期货,卖出2个月的VIX期货。一个月后买入一个月的期货价格有14.1降到了13.5,亏了0.6。卖出的2个月的期货,由15.4降到了14.1,赚了1.3。一买一卖合计赚了0.7。所以选 这道题很奇怪,已知VIX是斜向上了,为何还要买一个月的future?为何要亏这笔钱?VIX future是怎么结算的?到期时,看签订时定好的执行价格和现货VIX的价差结算吗?

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