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Yuyu · 2020年11月18日

问一道题:NO.PZ201720190200000305

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

5. Based on Exhibit 1 and McNeil’s two observations, the futures price of soybeans is most consistent with the:

选项:

A.

insurance theory.

B.

theory of storage.

C.

hedging pressure hypothesis.

解释:

C is correct.

In Exhibit 1, the spot price of soybeans is less than the futures price. This observation can be explained only by the hedging pressure hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, hedging pressure occurs when both producers and consumers seek to protect themselves from commodity market price volatility by entering into price hedges to stabilize their projected profits and cash flows. If consumers are more interested in hedging than producers are, the futures price will exceed the spot price.
In contrast, the insurance theory predicts that the futures price has to be lower than the current spot price as a form of payment or remuneration to the speculator who takes on the price risk and provides price insurance to the commodity seller. Similarly, the theory of storage also predicts that when a commodity’s convenience yield is greater than its direct storage costs, the futures price will be lower than the spot price.

想确认一下,如下总结是否正确?

1. insurance theory下,都会有backwardation的现象

2.看到题干中出现convinience yield, storage cost, 立马联系FP=SP+Storage Cost - Conv. yield,立刻联系storage theory

3.只要是consumer hedge的热情高于producer, 都是 hedging theory下会发生的事情,并且呈现contango.

1 个答案

韩韩_品职助教 · 2020年11月19日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好,

1. 对的,Insurance theory的理论就是发现期货总是backwardation,然后找到的一个理论解释,所以insurance theory都是backwardation

2. 对的。

3. Hedging pressure理论中,生产者在未来要卖出商品,考虑到商品价格下降的风险,选择short商品期货。那么消费者consumer刚好相反,他们想要锁定购买商品的价格,因此long商品期货。如果生产者和消费者对商品价格的影响势均力敌,那么就会产生一条水平的期货价格曲线;如果生产者short期货的力量更强,期货价格曲线会呈现现货溢价的状态,也就是backwardation,如果消费者long期货的力量更强,那么期货价格曲线会呈现期货溢价contango。

遇到这个考点的题目,一定要首先知道这个期货现在价格如何,然后再判断是用什么理论解释。


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