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徐威廉 · 2020年11月17日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018103102000045

问题如下:

Jacques is the portfolio manager of AB pension and she recently consider adding PZ Inc. (New York Stock Exchange: PZ) to its portfolio. After carefully considering the characteristics of the company and its competitors, she believes the company’s growth rate declines linearly from 12 percent in the first year to 6 percent in the fifth. PZ’s total dividends paid on 2017 was $0.22.The estimated that the required return is 9 percent. What is the intrinsic value of the stock?

选项:

A.

$10.32.

B.

$15.40.

C.

$8.65.

解释:

C is correct.

考点:H-model

解析:C是正确的。根据题干信息我们可以使用H模型来计算股票的内在价值,H模型的公式,股票的内在价值为

lV0=D0(1+gL)+D0H(gsgL)rgL{l}V_0=\frac{D_0\left(1+g_L\right)+D_0H(g_s-g_L)}{r-g_L}\\=0.22(1+0.06)+0.22×2(0.120.06)0.090.06=8.65=\frac{0.22(1+0.06)+0.22\times2(0.12-0.06)}{0.09-0.06}=8.65

这道题说了从第一年的12%开始下降到第五年的6%,有两种解释:

1.如果理解为第一年初开始下降,那这道题的下降周期即H应该等于5年,t=2.5

2.如果理解为从第一年年末开始下降,则本题为三阶段H-model,第一阶段12%第一年,第二阶段从第二年年开始linear下降四年到第五年的6%,第三阶段为永续6%

1 个答案
已采纳答案

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2020年11月18日

同学你好,应该是第二种理解。这道题和我们平时做的题不太一样,我们平时大部分题都是站在零时刻那么下降第一年是t=1,而这道题是站在t=1时刻往后看,那么第二年才开始降一直降到第5年,所以实际是下降了4年。

Hmodel的题目大部分都会说:“decline linearly to its mature phase during next X years”,此时说几年就是几年。这里留意即可。

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2024-06-25 17:28 1 · 回答

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2023-04-12 14:41 1 · 回答

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2022-12-05 09:05 2 · 回答

NO.PZ2018103102000045 请问所以in the fifth需要理解为在第五年刚开始的时候就开始下降?

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NO.PZ2018103102000045 这道题第一阶段应该用0.22*(1+12%)而不是6%啊,答案是不是给错了?

2021-02-24 22:34 1 · 回答