问题如下:
Assume
that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while
the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to
fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange
rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:
选项:
A.long-run equilibrium
value of the high-yield currency is revised upward
nominal yield spread
between the EM and DM countries increases over time
expected inflation
differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward
解释:
All
else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to
depreciation of the EM currency.
解析:
real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium
real exchange rate + (real
interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)
根据上述公式。所以A、B选项错误。
在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。
由于名义利率i=实际利率r+通胀π,
则B项,名义利率变大,对汇率影响实际上是不确定的,对吗?
因为可能是r变大,导致汇率升高,也可能是π变大,风险溢价上升,导致汇率下降。