问题如下:
7. The most appropriate response to the new committee member’s question is that:
选项:
A.roll returns are negatively correlated with price returns.
such roll returns are the result of futures markets in backwardation.
such positions may outperform other positions that have positive roll returns.
解释:
C is correct.
Investment positions are evaluated on the basis of total return, and the roll return is part of the total return. Even though negative roll return negatively affects the total return, this effect could be more than offset by positive price and collateral returns. Therefore, it is possible that positions with negative roll returns outperform positions with positive roll returns, depending on the price and collateral returns.
请问选项A错了是不是因为price上升(positive price return)也可能会有positive roll return?
比如 今年2月 ¥50 4月的FP=¥30 然后到了7月¥70 8月FP=¥60, absolute value来看是上升 positive price return 而且是backwardation 有positive roll return?
所以两者的关系是(1)contango一定是价格上升,但价格上升不一定能证明是contango,判断是否contango还是backwardation要看到期的FP价格和最近一期要roll买入的FP价格,和价格上升下降的曲线没有关系。请问是这样理解的吗? 谢谢