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李冬树 · 2020年11月10日

问一道题：NO.PZ2015120604000073

  1. CFA I
  2. Quantitative

问题如下：

According to the above table, which of the following statements is the most correct?


 

选项：

A.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.01.

B.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.20.

C.

If performance of today's bond market is poor, the conditional probability of having good performance of next day's bond market is equal to 0.50.

解释：

B is correct.

P(good performance of next day/poor performance of today)=0.2, which is shown in the table.

老师可以写一下具体计算过程吗？

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1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年11月10日

同学你好，

这道题不需要计算。以B选项为例，当“performance of today's bond market is poor”时，直接找到“good performance of next day's bond market ”的概率，即可，即“Good”对应的0.2即可。

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