问题如下:
6. If Carlisle’s prediction about the economy of Country #3 is realized, the yield curve in Country #3 will most likely:
选项:
A. remain flat.
B. become upward sloping.
C. become downward sloping.
解释:
B is correct.
The yield curve in Country #3 is currently flat (Exhibit 1), and Carlisle predicts a recession. During a recession, short-term rates tend to be lower because central banks tend to lower their policy rate in these times. However, the impact of monetary policy on longer-term rates will not be as strong because the central bank will usually be expected to bring short-term rates back to normal as the recession recedes. Thus, the slope of the yield curve will likely become upward sloping during the recession.
考点:yield curve
解析:题干问的是 prediction is realized的情况,Carlisle预测的是recession,也就是说recession已经发生了。原收益率曲线是flat,进入recession,央行降息对短期收益率影响更大,因此yield curve向上倾斜。
预测实现=预测成真=真的要衰退了,这样理解有什么错误么……二级的题感觉这样的坑挺多。