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natalie2003 · 2020年11月05日

问一道题:NO.PZ201710100100000306 第6小题 [ CFA II ]

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

6. If Carlisle’s prediction about the economy of Country #3 is realized, the yield curve in Country #3 will most likely:

选项:

A.

remain flat.

B.

become upward sloping.

C.

become downward sloping.

解释:

B is correct.

The yield curve in Country #3 is currently flat (Exhibit 1), and Carlisle predicts a recession. During a recession, short-term rates tend to be lower because central banks tend to lower their policy rate in these times. However, the impact of monetary policy on longer-term rates will not be as strong because the central bank will usually be expected to bring short-term rates back to normal as the recession recedes. Thus, the slope of the yield curve will likely become upward sloping during the recession.

考点:yield curve

解析:题干问的是 prediction is realized的情况,Carlisle预测的是recession,也就是说recession已经发生了。原收益率曲线是flat,进入recession,央行降息对短期收益率影响更大,因此yield curve向上倾斜。

预测实现=预测成真=真的要衰退了,这样理解有什么错误么……二级的题感觉这样的坑挺多。
1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年11月05日

同学你好,

预测成真说明衰退了。而衰退(recession)会导致yield curve向上倾斜。

during recession---upward sloping,这是这个地方考的最多的一个考点。

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