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wosmomo · 2020年11月01日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091901000054

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

bond yield显示出紧缩,意思就是长期债券收益率上升,然后曲线显示经济放缓,意思就是政府已经使用宽松货币政策了,所以两个结合起来看就是steepen?这也太难受了

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年11月02日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


因为此时要考虑刺激经济,所以要实施宽松货币政策,短期利率会大幅下降(大于长期债券收益率),所以利率会变得陡峭起来。


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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