问题如下:
Counterparty A is an American company with manufacturing operations in Indonesia and its main customers in the United States, while counterparty B is an American company that manufactures its goods domestically and exports solely to Indonesia. Which one of the following transactions with either counterparty will be a wrong-way exposure for a bank?
选项:
A.A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty A where the bank is USD interest rate receiver
B.A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option sold by the bank to counterparty A for it to buy IDR at a certain rate
C.A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty B where the bank is USD interest rate receiver
D.A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option bought by the bank from counterparty B for the bank to buy IDR at a certain rate
解释:
C is correct. This is an example of a wrong-way exposure, where a gain on the instrument for the bank is associated with a higher probability of default (PD) for its counterparty. If the IDR depreciates, counterparty A will make a profit because its costs will go down in dollars; conversely for counterparty B, because its dollar revenues will decrease. Under c., the company pays USD and receives IDR. This transaction will create a loss if the IDR depreciates. In this situation, counterparty B will lose money as well on its exports. Hence, this is a wrong-way trade.
B,银行是short IDR方不存在对手盘风险,
D,银行是long IDR方,IDR升值,银行赚钱,IDR升值,USD 贬值,USD贬值B出口增加,B的PD下降,银行越赚钱,B的违约概率越不大,是不是一个right way risk?
在swap中 receiver 是long方,收美元相当于赌USD升值,C选项USD 升值,BANK 赚钱,但是B是美国出口过,升值B的出口下降,PD提高,所以是一个wrong way risk?