问题如下:
4. The best response to Question 1 is that the policies will:
选项:
A.have no impact.
B.lead to currency appreciation.
C.lead to currency depreciation.
解释:
B is correct.
The currency is likely to appreciate. The emerging market country has both a restrictive monetary policy and restrictive fiscal policy under conditions of low capital mobility. Low capital mobility indicates that interest rate changes induced by monetary and fiscal policy will not cause large changes in capital flows. Implementation of restrictive policies should result in an improvement in the trade balance, which will result in currency appreciation.
考点:Mudell-Fleming model的经典考法,要求考生熟练掌握在不同的政策下对汇率的影响。
解析:比如这道题,在资本限制流动的情况下,紧缩的货币政策会抬升利率,吸引资本流入,但是由于资本账户是受到管制的,资本流出规模非常有限,因此本币小幅度升值。
一方面,紧缩的财政政策阻碍经济增长,国民收入减少,进口减少,贸易顺差扩大,本币升值。
另一方面,紧缩的财政政策导致利率下降,资金流出,但由于资本账户管制,流出的资金有限,本币贬值幅度很小,
最终结果就是在资本管制下扩张的财政政策导致本币升值。
上课讲Mundell-Fleming模型对于紧缩的货币政策和财政政策对汇率的影响不是下面这样么:
1)对于capital account a)紧缩的货币政策导致本币小幅度升值 b)紧缩的财政政策导致本币小幅度贬值-----最终capital account对汇率影响不确定
2)对于current account 紧缩的财政政策会引起本币升值
但由于本身capital account的影响大于current account,所以最后的汇率变动结果不能确定
为什么这个题就是确定升值?