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汤米露 · 2020年10月10日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000041

问题如下:

McLaughlin and Michaela Donaldson, a junior analyst at Delphi, are now discussing how to reposition the portfolio in light of McLaughlin’s expectations about interest rates over the next 12 months. She expects interest rate volatility to be high and the yield curve to experience an increase in the 2s/10s/30s butterfly spread, with the 30-year yield remaining unchanged. Selected yields on the Treasury yield curve, and McLaughlin’s expected changes in yields over the next 12 months, are presented in Exhibit 1.

Donaldson suggests they also consider altering the portfolio’s convexity to enhance expected return given McLaughlin’s interest rate expectations.

Given McLaughlin’s interest rate expectations over the next 12 months, one way that Donaldson and McLaughlin could alter convexity to enhance expected return would be to:

选项:

A.

sell call options on bonds held in the portfolio.

B.

buy call options on long-maturity government bond futures.

C.

sell put options on bonds they would be willing to own in the portfolio.

解释:

B is correct.

McLaughlin expects interest rate volatility to be high and the yield curve to experience an increase in the butterfly spread, with the 30-year yield remaining unchanged. To increase the portfolio’s expected return, Donaldson and McLaughlin should buy call options on long-maturity government bond futures to increase convexity.

这题的关键是alter convexity,然后去enhance expected return.

而大的前提是:

  1. interest rate volatility 提高了
  2. yield curve 在2s/5s/10s的时候提高了


那么当看到volatility提高了之后,其实买options是最佳的。那么买了option,同时也会增加convexity。那么避免了当yield curve上移之后,产生的loss.

所以B的答案是我买了一个call option之后,提高了convexity,使得利率上升之后,债价会下跌少一点。


但试想下,如果利率变高了,债价格变低了,是不是应该long bond future,这样当利率上升,债价降低的时候能够增加收益呢。所以我的第一反应应该是long put. 这边没有一个long put的选项,所以我就选了sell call.


两个解释都满足了调整convexity,来增加expected return, 第一个是提高convexity,第二个是降低convexity. 所以从概念上应该都符合。但我实在受不了答案B,当你利率上升了,你还要买入CALL OPTION, 这不是找亏嘛。明明你知道利率是要上升的,你还买option on bond future.难道convexity增加的收益会大于call option的premium嘛?




1 个答案

WallE_品职答疑助手 · 2020年10月11日

同学您好,

这道题的点就在于要提高convexity,咱们要怎么做。

我们都知道stable yield curve的时候要卖凸性,那么波动的时候我们要买凸性,来增加convexity。

您说long bond futures,那么肯定就不满足题目的条件,因为futures根本就不增加凸性。切short options 反而是减少了凸性。

------------------

然后您这句话“如果利率变高了,债价格变低了,是不是应该long bond future,这样当利率上升,债价降低的时候能够增加收益呢”是不是表述欠妥呢?

我们假设签订1年后以100块买债券,现在利率变高,价格变成了80,以后我花100块钱买一个80块的债券,会带来收益吗?

------------------

题外话,如果在实际工作中,一个债券基金,看到他的yield curve全面上升,会给他的基金带来损失。那他最应该做的不就是清仓么,但是没有一个公募基金会因为这个情况就关闭了吧,您说是不。他们会选择承担风险,或者用衍生品来对冲风险,虽然衍生品是花钱的。所以您最后的一句小问题也不恰当哈。

那么回到本题,还是以我第一段为主,通过买options来增加凸性才是这一道题唯一的解释。

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NO.PZ2019103001000041 “因为题干预测的利率信息是利率波动加大 She expects interest rate volatility to high anthe yielcurve to experienincrease in the 2s/10s/30s butterfly sprea with the 30-yeyielremaining unchange所以B说的Buy options,就会增加组合的Convexity,于是组合获得“涨多跌少”的优势,策略会增强收益。” 怎么理解increase in the 2s/10s/30s butterfly spreasprea加利率增加,债券价格下跌幅度再有限,但那也是跌啊哪来的enhanreturn?为啥不能直接卖了option赚期权费 收益的更多?

2021-05-24 20:51 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2019103001000041 buy call options on long-maturity government bonfutures. sell put options on bon they woulwilling to own in the portfolio. B is correct. McLaughlin expects interest rate volatility to high anthe yielcurve to experienincrease in the butterfly sprea with the 30-yeyielremaining unchange To increase the portfolio’s expectereturn, nalon anMcLaughlin shoulbuy call options on long-maturity government bonfutures to increase convexity. 题干有错误吧?butterfly那里

2021-04-28 22:16 3 · 回答

NO.PZ2019103001000041 这道题为什么不选short put option,是因为可能接不到货吗?

2021-03-14 16:33 2 · 回答

请问,题干中已经说明30年期收益率不变,那么即便买入长期国债期货是不是也不会增加收益呢?毕竟convexity特性是涨多涨多跌少,可30年长期利率不变啊。

2021-02-04 12:13 2 · 回答

不好意思老师还是没有看懂,如果说利率上升,债券价格降低,为啥要买看涨期权呢?增加了convexity但是又额外付出了成本呀

2020-11-04 09:48 1 · 回答