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海伦岛主 · 2020年10月09日

问一道题:NO.PZ2015121810000027

问题如下:

The prices of one-period, real default-free government bonds are likely to be most sensitive to changes in:

选项:

A.

investors’ inflation expectations.

B.

the expected volatility of economic growth.

C.

the covariance between investors’ inter-temporal rates of substitution and the expected future prices of the bonds.

解释:

B is correct.

Only changes in default-free real interest rates will affect the price of real, default-free bonds. The average level of default-free real interest rates is positively related to the volatility of economic growth in the economy; thus, changes in the expected volatility of economic growth would likely lead to changes in real default-free real interest rates, which in turn would affect the prices of real, default-free government bonds.

考点:Discount Rate on Real Default-free Bonds

解析:排除法

A, real bonds不会受到通货膨胀的影响,nominal bonds才会。

B,volatility of economic growth影响分母l,即real default-free interest rate,所以B正确

C,one-period的债券价格不受covariance的影响,因为one-period default free bond的covariance=0。只有多期债券才会受covariance影响。

为什么growth volatility越大,l越大呢?是讲义中哪句话?

我理解的讲义中只是说未来growth预期越大,l越大,但是growth越大和growth volatitlity越大是两码事。。

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年10月09日

同学你好,

讲义中的结论如下:

1. An economy with higher trend real economic growth, other things being equal, should have higher real default-free interest rates than an economy with lower trend growth.

2. The real interest rates are higher in an economy in which GDP growth is more volatile compared with real interest rates in an economy in which growth is more stable.

所以growth越大和growth volatility越大都影响real rate,这是两个结论,都需要掌握。

 

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