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粉红豹 · 2020年10月08日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091901000057

问题如下:

An Australian investor currently holds a A$240 million equity portfolio. He is considering rebalancing the portfolio based on an assessment of the risk and return prospects facing the Australian economy. Information relating to the Australian investment markets and the economy has been collected in the following table:

Using the information in the table, calculate the historical Australian equity risk premium by the “equity-vs-bonds” premium method.

选项:

A.

4.6%

B.

2.7%

C.

1.8 %

解释:

C is correct.

The historical equity risk premium is 1.8%, calculated as follows:

Historical equity returns – Historical 10-year government bond yield = Historical equity risk premium

4.6% – 2.8% = 1.8%

解析:

Historical equity returns=historical 10-year government bond yield + Historical equity risk premium,根据此等式,我们就可以反求出Historical equity risk premium= 4.6% – 2.8% = 1.8%注意到题目要求的是历史数据 所以求解此题时都应该用表格第一列的数据

表格中给的average annual equity return 4.6%,为什么和利用historical 一栏数据求出来的annual equity return(求出来是7.6%,计算见下)不同呢?

利用historical 一栏数据求出来的annual equity return我是这么计算的:dividend income return 2.6% + average real earnings growth 6.0% +inflation 2.3% +(14.5/15-1)current P/E相对于10-year historical的增幅 =7.6%。

请教老师,这个为什么呢?我哪里计算错了吗?

如果我错了,正确的计算应该是什么样的?


2 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年10月14日

理论上,两个方法求出来应该一样,但是,出题目的人是要求用 “equity-vs-bonds” premium ,他也没计算基于GK的溢价是多少。

因为4.6是一个均值 average ,而你算的7.6%是某一年的,这个误差是正常的。

 

源_品职助教 · 2020年10月11日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


因为题目要求是用 “equity-vs-bonds” premium 的方法,

而你选用的是GK模型的方法。方法不一样,所以得到的结果不一样。

正确的方法就是答案中列示的步骤。


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


粉红豹 · 2020年10月14日

按道理说,不同方法求出来的值应该一样呀,那表格中给的average annual equity return 4.6%,为什么和利用historical 一栏数据求出来的annual equity return(求出来是7.6%,计算见下)不同呢?

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