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装甲掷弹兵 · 2020年09月27日

问一道题：NO.PZ2018091901000061 [ CFA III ]

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

问题如下：

An analyst at a real estate investment management firm seeks to establish expectations for rate of return for properties in the industrial sector over the next year. She has obtained the following information:

Estimate the expected return from the industrial sector properties based on the data provided.

选项：

A.

10.7%

B.

11.7%

C.

5.7%

解释：

B is correct.

The expected change in the cap rate from 5.7% to 5.5% represents a (5.5% –5.7%)/5.7% = 3.5% decrease.

Using the expression E(Rre) = CapRate + NOI growth rate – %ΔCapRate = 5.7%+ (1% + 1.5%) – (–3.5%) = 11.7%.

Note: As the cap rate is expected to decrease, property values are expected to increase, hence the cap rate change contributes to the expected return.

解析：

上限率从5.7%到5.5%的预期变化为(5.5% -5.7%)/5.7% = 3.5%。

使用表达式E(Rre) = CapRate + NOI growth rate – %ΔCapRate = 5.7%+ (1% + 1.5%) – (–3.5%) = 11.7%.

注意到，由于上限税率预期会下降，物业价值预期会上升，因此上限税率的改变对预期回报有贡献。

请问这道题最后的计算中为什么cap rate用现在的5.7而非expect的5.5？
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1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年09月27日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


房地产收益率的预估，是在当期CAP RATE的基础上进行调整（ NOI growth rate 以及%ΔCapRate这两项 ）。

 


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