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汤小律 · 2020年09月15日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018111501000021

问题如下:

Fundo do Brasil (FB) is a Brazilian sovereign wealth fund. FB has long equity positions in Australian and Swiss equities. Spot and forward market currency information for AUD and CHF is provided in Exhibit 1. FB managers have asked Campos for advice on whether it would be appropriate to hedge the currency exposure with forward contracts in AUD and CHF. Campos indicates she will examine the use of forward contracts to hedge currency exposure.

Based on the information provided in Exhibit 1, the most appropriate risk neutral strategy is for FB to:

选项:

A.

under-hedge AUD and over-hedge CHF.

B.

over-hedge AUD and not hedge CHF.

C.

under-hedge CHF and not hedge AUD.

解释:

B is correct.

考点:Tools of Currency Management: Forward

解析:用forward contracts对冲外汇风险,对冲的是卖AUDCHF的外汇风险,所以将来是short AUD forward, short CHF forward。相比预测的未来6个月的汇率(即不用合约锁定的汇率),2.1523>2.0355,所以应当hedge AUD,锁定更高的卖AUD的价格。并且over-hedge可以带来更高的收益。对于BRL/CHF2.4641<2.5642, 所以不hedge时,卖CHF的价格更高。

什么时候和forecast forward rate 比较,什么时候和forecast spot rate比较啊?有点晕

3 个答案

Hertz_品职助教 · 2021年04月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好~

问题:为何答案用的是forward rate比较?

我们有外币资产的敞口,需要用forward合约进行hedge,即锁定将来的汇率为forward rate。因此我们需要用forward合约中锁定的这个汇率和预期的forecast rate 作比较,以此来判断是否有必要进行hedge。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

xiaowan_品职助教 · 2020年09月18日

同学你好,

题目中提问其实是基金经理会如何做出决策,这就会基于其对市场主观的观点,即forecast rate,

而forward rate本身是合约的价格,在题目中通常不会作为对未来如何预测这个角度出现,它只是在我们计算使用forward这个工具进行交易或对冲时,计算盈亏或者roll yield这些定量计算时,需要带入使用的。

xiaowan_品职助教 · 2020年09月16日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,

forecast spot rate可以看作是投资经理预期未来的观点,他的决策会基于这个观点;

forward rate是forward合约的价格,是全市场交易出来的价格。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


sion · 2021年04月15日

为何答案用的是forward rate比较?

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