问一道题：NO.PZ2016082405000067

问题如下：

Based on the following information, what are the the risk-neutral and real-world default probabilities?

• Market price of bond is 92.

• Liquidity premium is 1%.

• Credit risk premium is 2%.

• Risk-free rate is 2.5%.

• Expected inflation is 1.5%.

• Recovery rate is 0%.

选项：

Risk-neutral probability

Real-world probability

解释：

B The risk-neutral default probability is approximately 8% because the market price is 92% of par.

risk-neutral probability = real-world probability + credit risk premium + liquidity premium

8% = real-world probability + 2% + 1%

real-world probability = 8% - 3% = 5%

我这题是用排除法做的，只有B选项，risk neutral PD大于real PD，是不是可以这么做，因为计算的跟这不一样。

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1 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2020年09月03日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：

可以把risk neutral PD大于real PD作为一个选择依据吧。

本题的计算过程如下。这道题的槽点是，它把1+rf近似成1了，92=（1-PD）*100/（1+rf），被好多人诟病过，不具有代表性。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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NO.PZ2016082405000067 B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 可以具体下The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par.么？如果按照讲义上的风险中性p计算方法如下，计算出来是5.7%，请问这个方式有什么问题么？ p=100(1-p/1+risk_free_rate 92=100*(1-p/1+0.025

2021-05-11 23:13 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2016082405000067 8% 5% 6% 8% 5% 6% B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 真实pπ这个规律可以直接使用吗

2021-03-27 12:02 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2016082405000067 B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 这里的real-worlP我理解用中性减掉LRP，但是为什么要减去CRP？CRP不是应该包括在真实世界P面吗？

2021-03-04 23:29 1 · 回答

2020-11-05 20:22 1 · 回答

B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 我的只能理解，中性定价里面，所有的sprea对CR进行补偿，这个时候CR大了，所以P，如果是objective的话， sprea止对CR进行补偿，还有别的东西，所以，P对就低了。就是扫一眼知道选B ，还是不太明白你放的那个图，和这句话是怎么补偿的。讲道理RISK NATURP 1+3+2=6%,这个东西应该是sprea概念如果套用这题，sprea 8%-2.5%=5.5%，如果是risk natur的话5.5%全部补偿CR了，再减去1%的流动性4.5%就是objective 但是这么硬算又找不到答案。。。

2020-10-14 19:45 1 · 回答