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Aaabby · 2020年07月17日

问一道题:NO.PZ201902210100000103

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

Among the carry trades available in the US, Euro, and UK markets, the highest expected return for the USD-denominated portfolio over the next 6 months is closest to:

选项:

A.

0.275%.

B.

0.85%.

C.

0.90%.

解释:

B is correct.

The highest potential return, 0.85%, reflects borrowing USD for 6 months and buying the UK 5-year bond. The carry component of the expected return is actually a loss of 0.15% [= (1.10% – 1.40%)/2], but this is more than offset by the 1% expected appreciation of GBP versus USD. A much higher carry component +0.90% = (1.95% – 0.15%)/2 could be obtained by borrowing for 6 months in EUR to buy the US 5-year note, but that advantage would be more than offset by the expected 1% loss from depreciation of the USD (long) against the Euro (short).

A is incorrect because a higher expected return of 0.85% can be obtained. This answer, +0.275% [= (1.95% – 1.40%)/2], is the highest carry available over the next 6 months within the US market itself (an intra-market carry trade).

C is incorrect. This answer (+0.90%) is the highest potential carry component of return but ignores the impact of currency exposure (being long the depreciating USD and short the appreciating Euro).

问题中:Among the carry trades available in the US, Euro, and UK markets, the highest expected return for the USD-denominated portfolio over the next 6 months is closest to?


请问问题中【the USD-denominated portfolio】有什么特别含义么?如果问题中的【the USD-denominated portfolio】换成【the EUR-denominated portfolio】或者【the GBP-denominated portfolio】答案会不一样么?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年07月17日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


“请问问题中【the USD-denominated portfolio】有什么特别含义么?”


如果是一道没有错误的题目,限定是哪个货币的Portfolio有特别的含义。

原因是限定了计价货币,我们最终的投资收益一定要核算成这个计价货币才行。Portfolio的计价本币不同,我们获取的收益也是不同的。

比如,借JPY,投USD,这个Carry trade;虽然Carry trade的收益是定死的,但是对于不同国家的Portfolio来说,这个收益是有不同含义的。

比如RMB计价的Portfolio,最后JPY的Carry trade收益还要换成RMB,以GBP计价的Portfolio,最终JPY的Carry trade收益要换成GBP;

经过最终的转换,可能借JPY,投USD对RMB Portfolio来讲是最优的Carry trade;但对GBP来讲,借JPY,投USD不一定是最优的Portfolio。

所以同样的一个Carry trade,对不同的货币计价Portfolio来讲,吸引力是不一样的。

那这样的话,限定一下The USD-Denominated portfolio就非常重要了。



但是我们这道题有些错误,过去2年已经有一些学员已经提问过了。

对我们这道题来讲,他限定成The USD-Denominated portfolio,其实是为了保证Carry trade里面必须有一个USD的利率头寸;

因为题干条件里面有限定,Portfolio最多只额外引入一个Duration(Each such trade will involve extending duration (e.g., lend long/ borrow short) in no more than one market.),他说extending duration 不能超过一个市场。

对于USD-portfolio来讲,因为已经有USD的利率头寸(已经有USD Duration),所以Carry trade里有一个美国利率不算额外引入Duration,那这样的话,Carry trade里,还能再额外引入一个其他的利率头寸;这样这个Carry trade就只额外引入了一个Duration。

经过这么限定,如答案所示,这道题的Carry trade里一定有一个美元利率;


但是这道题还是有问题,因为在UK市场上借6month,投5-year也是只额外引入了一个市场的Duration,最终转换成USD收益会更高。但是似乎答案没有考虑到。所以先忽略这道题的情况,了解到Carry trade基础计算即可。


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