老师您好。CME基础班fixed income building block书上例题,对于两个结论有些迷惑:
1 the increase in loan defaults suggests that credit losses are likely to be higher next year as well, since defaults tend to cluster. all else the same, this reduces the expected return on corporate bonds/loan. hence, the credit premium should increase less than would otherwise be implied by the steeper yield curve and wider credit spreads.
2 the resilience of the equity market and the decline in equity option volatility suggest that investors are not demanding a general increase in risk premiums.
我对2的理解是:波动降低,投资者要求的风险溢价就低。 反过来说,波动如果升高,投资者要求的风险溢价就要高。
而1中说违约升高(我理解就是volatility升高),按照2的逻辑,投资者应该要求更高的风险溢价(credit premium increase)。为什么最后的结论是credit premium increase less ?