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Lisa Li · 2020年06月27日

问一道题：NO.PZ2020012201000007

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

问题如下：

Alena,CFA, was updating her firm’s projections for US equity returns.If she believed that in the long run that the US labor input would grow by 0.9% perannum and labor productivity by 1.5%, that inflation would be 2.1%, that the dividend yield would be 2.25%, and that there would be no further growth in P/E, what is likely to have been her baseline projection for continuously compounded long-term US equity returns?

选项：

A.

6.75%

B.

5.5%

C.

5.85%

解释：

A is correct

解释：

在长期，一国股票市场的增长率等于该国GDP的增长率(本题P/E增长率为0也证实了这一点)。那么本题就等于计算该国GDP的增长率。

Her baseline projection is likely to have been 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

依照公式可得：. 6.75% = 0.9% + 1.5% + 2.1% + 2.25%

请问这题考的具体知识点是什么公式？

为什么equity return是等于labor input+labor productivity+dividend yield+ inflation? 前两个labor input & labor productivity我可以理解应该的是这两个加起会影响GDP growth, inflatioin rate是因为算出名目成长率，但是为何要加入dividend yield??

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1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年06月28日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


因为任对于股票这种投资标的而言，任何收益都可以看作是CAPITAL GAIN以及 DIVDEND YIELD这两部分组成。

所以对于分工这部分一定要加上。这道题我们课上有讲解，可以再听一下。


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！


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