问题如下:
At the PZ Company’s morning meeting between analysts and the sales staff, Fund manager Matthew gave a short presentation on the investment report. He is concerned that analyst of PZ Company overstates its strategy breadth, Matthew makes two conclusions:
Conclusion one: All the stocks in a given industry that are responding to similar influences cannot be counted as completely independent decisions, so breadth is lower than the number of assets.
Conclusion two: If there is price momentum effect in stock market, analysts who claim to evaluate securities each month will overstate their estimates.
Which of the following statement is most likely correct?
选项:
A. Conclusion one is correct.
B. Conclusion two is correct.
C. Both conclusions are correct.
解释:
C is correct
考点:practical limitations of the fundamental law
解析:
Conclusion one: 同一行业的股票,如果受相同因素影响,那么分析师采取的分析方法是相同的,股票与股票之间的预测不独立,因此预测次数少于股票个数的。
?Conclusion two: 由于股票市场是有惯性的,也就是涨的股票会持续上涨,跌的股票会持续下跌,那么一旦分析师观察到股票上涨,他很有可能预测下个月同样上涨。因此独立的实际预测次数是小于一年12次的,也就是会高估自己的预测次数。
如果是有惯性的,分析师不是应该会低估吗?(因为没考虑惯性)