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HG · 2020年06月20日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512300100000303

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问题如下:

3. In the current interest rate environment, using a required return estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical equity riskpremium defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:

选项:

A.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates upwards.

B.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates downwards.

C.

have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.

解释:

A is correct.

The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical equity risk premium, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upwards.

老师这道题说了a historical equity riskpremium defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate,这个ERP是基于 short-term来计算的意思吧???

1 个答案

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2020年06月21日

同学你好,你理解的是对的,这道题目是问,如果用短期的rf和历史ERP来估算long-term的Re,会带来什么样的偏差。根据re=rf+beta(rm-rf)

1、当前利率曲线是inverted,说明短期利率大于长期利率,因此公式第一项短期的rf较大

2、rm-rf用历史ERP,历史上利率曲线是normal形态——upward sloping(短期小于长期),因此短期rm-rf较大

综上,用短期的rf和历史ERP,会高估re。加油。

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