问一道题：NO.PZ2015120604000178 [ CFA I ]

问题如下：

BIM is a well-developed public company and its market capitalization growth rates over past few decades are normally distributed.The population has a mean of 10% and a standard deviation of 5.4%. An investor wants to figure out the probability that BIM's average capitalization growth rate will over 12.32% in the next three years (all the data are monthly statistics).Which of the following option is most accurate?

选项：

0.5%.

1%.

5%.

解释：

A is correct.

It is appropriate to use the central limit theroy to calculate.

$Standatd error = \frac{5.4 %/}{\sqrt{6}} = 0.009$

P(X＞12.32%)=P(Z＞ (12.32%-10%)/0.009)=P(Z＞2.58). So the corresponding probability is 0.5%.

从哪里能看出是双尾不是单尾呢？ Ha不是>12·32%吗，所以应该是单尾，选1%啊

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1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年06月14日

同学你好，

单尾/双尾是假设检验的考点，这道题考察的是正态分布标准化，代入公式得出概率后，查表求面积就可以了。不需要考虑假设检验或单双尾的问题，也和Ha无关，这道题是不存在原假设与备择假设的。

具体解题步骤为代入公式后发现要求的是P(Z＞2.58)，查表可知P(Z＜2.58)=99.5%，所以P(Z＞2.58)=0.5%。

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问一道题：NO.PZ2015120604000178 [ CFA I ]

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