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SUN · 2020年06月09日

问一道题：NO.PZ2018091705000060 [ CFA III ]

  1. CFA III
  2. 个人IPS

问题如下：

John C. Hill, sole owner of JCH Equipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company and approaches Mary Keller, a wealth adviser, for advice.

Hill refers his friend, Richard Morrison, the former CEO of Masury Bridge and Iron (MBI), to Keller to discuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison and gathers the following information:

• Richard Morrison is 50 years old and his spouse, Meredith, is 49 years old. Both are healthy and both expect to live at least an additional 40 years.

• The Morrisons have a 20-year-old son and would like to transfer 5% of their wealth to him during their lifetime.

• Richard Morrison retired two years ago and intends to spend his time serving on philanthropic boards; Meredith does not work.

• The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently valued at $50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth.

• MBI is a large, publicly traded company, and the Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the total market capitalization.

• The Morrison family depends on dividends from MBI for their day-to-day living expenses.

• The cost basis of their MBI shares is close to zero, and the capital gains tax rate is 15%.

• Richard Morrison is loyal to MBI, follows the stock closely, believes he knows the company better than other investors, and expects the company to continue to be a good investment in the future just like it has been in the past.

• The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current standard of living during retirement.

Explain three emotional biases that may affect Richard Morrison’s decision making.

解释：

A number of emotional biases can negatively affect the decision-making of holders of concentrated positions. Specifically, Richard Morrison’s decision to diversify may be negatively affected by loyalty effects, overconfidence/familiarity, and status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts indicate that Mr. Morrison is extremely loyal to MBI (loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better than other investors (overconfidence/familiarity); and he expects the company to continue to be a good investment as it has been in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns).

这题没有具体的现象，就是猜吗？那是不是所有losser对应的bias都可以写上去了？

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1 个答案

Olive_品职助教 · 2020年06月11日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


可以看到答案并不是把上述几项都列了，因为Morrison没有endowment effect。

其他的bias都是能在题目背景中找到依据的。具体的依据解析里都写了，同学可以再仔细揣摩一下。

 

 


-------------------------------
努力的时光都是限量版，加油！


SUN · 2020年06月11日

谢谢

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NO.PZ2018091705000060 John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 老师，RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. 这可不可以理解为representative basis呢?

2021-11-02 10:35 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091705000060 A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 这个为啥不是halo bias就是那个光环效应？因为他觉得这公司好

2021-10-15 23:19 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091705000060 John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 没有Availability bias吗？因为熟悉MBI所以认为会一直好下去。

2021-07-07 22:35 1 · 回答

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2021-04-05 17:27 2 · 回答

John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 请问从哪句可以看出loyalty?

2021-01-24 12:27 1 · 回答