inflation expectation是顺周期还是逆周期？

抱歉，我之前回答多打了一个“没”字。应该是如果老百姓对央行目标有信心，那么就更容易表现出逆周期的特征。

因为在经济在谷底时，通胀预期可能不降反升（央行说要刺激经济），经济在顶点时通胀周期开始下降（央行说要收缩经济），这种打破原有趋势的期限结构（谷底的上升以及顶点的下落）本身就是逆周期的表现

原文好像没有明确提及 expectations的振幅变小，而是说如果人们对央行目标有信息，那么长期的通胀预期就不会受到经济波动的影响。如果你要把这理解成 expectations的振幅变小也可以。

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：

这里的原版书内容如下所示

Because the cyclical pattern of inflation is well known, inflation expectations willalso be procyclical. It is important, however, to differentiate inflation expectations by horizon. Very long-term inflation expectations should be virtually unaffected by cyclical fluctuations provided investors maintain confidence in the central bank's target. Short horizon expectations will tend to have about the same amplitude as actualinflation. Inflation, and therefore inflation expectations, over intermediate horizonswill be a blend of the different phases of the current and subsequent cycles. Hence, the amplitude of expectations will decline with horizon-again, provided investors do not lose confidence in the central bank's target.
The pattern just described implies a "horizon structure"of inflation expectations that is countercyclical-upward slopihg at the trough of the business cycle and inverted at the peak. Because inflation expectations are an important component of bond yields, this countercyclical pattern is one of the reasons that the yield curve's slope is countercyclical

其实也就说一般而言，预期通胀的确是顺周期的，但是如果老百姓对于央行目标没有信心，那么就会表现为逆周期特征，所以逆周期是有一定条件的。

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努力的时光都是限量版，加油！