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SUN · 2020年05月31日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000052 [ CFA III ]

问题如下:

Silvia Abram and Walter Edgarton are analysts with Cefrino Investments, which sponsors the Cefrino Sovereign Bond Fund (the Fund). Abram and Edgarton recently attended an investment committee meeting where interest rate expectations for the next 12 months were discussed. The Fund’s mandate allows its duration to fluctuate ±0.30 per year from the benchmark duration. The Fund’s duration is currently equal to its benchmark. Although the Fund is presently invested entirely in annual coupon sovereign bonds, its investment policy also allows investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and call options on government bond futures. The Fund’s current holdings of on-the-run bonds are presented in Exhibit 1.


Over the next 12 months, Abram expects a stable yield curve; however, Edgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

Based on Edgarton’s expectation for the yield curve over the next 12 months, the Fund’s return relative to the benchmark would most likely increase by:

选项:

A.

riding the yield curve

B.

implementing a barbell structure.

C.

shortening the portfolio duration relative to the benchmark.

解释:

C is correct.

If interest rates rise and the yield curve steepens as Edgarton expects, then shortening the Fund’s duration from a neutral position to one that is shorter than the benchmark will improve the portfolio’s return relative to the benchmark. This duration management strategy will avoid losses from long-term interest rate increases.

解析最后一句话对吗? 这题我先想到的是找bullet是不是思路 有点问题?
3 个答案
已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年06月03日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


“解析最后一句话对吗? 这题我先想到的是找bullet是不是思路 有点问题?”


他这里是这样,根据这道题的题干信息,可以顺着Bullet的思路往下想,但是会得到一个冲突的结论,所以这条路走不通。

我们现在收益率曲线的变化预期如下:

Edgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

也就是短期利率上升1%,长期利率上升幅度大于1%。

那这样的话这种收益率曲线的变动,就进一步可以拆解为:收益率曲线先整体向上平行移动1%,然后按住短期利率不变,长期利率再额外上升、产生收益率曲线Steepening的变动。

那这样的话,可以参考我们基础班总结的表格(如下图红框和蓝框):

虽然收益率曲线Steepening时,Bullet表现更好,我们可以选择Bullet策略,但是平行移动时Bullet的表现又不好(表现差于Barbell、应该执行Barbell策略)。

这样的话,从Steepening角度出发应该选Bullet,从平行移动角度出发应该不选Bullet,所以,我们这道题平行上移+Steepening的收益率曲线变动,如果定性判断,Bullet型表现是好是坏就不能直接判断了。


那反正在这道题里面,收益率曲线存在整体向上移动,那我们就是用最简单的Duration management即可,既然利率存在整体上升,那降低组合的Duration就好了,利率上升,债券的价格下降有Capital loss,降低Duration,可以降低损失。

卖出长期债券就能降低组合的Duration,同时因为长期利率上升幅度更大,卖出长期债券规避的损失更多,所以这道题通过卖出长期债券降低组合的Duration是比较好的选择。

所以答案最后一句话:This duration management strategy will avoid losses from long-term interest rate increases.

这句话是正确的,就是说通过Duration management(通过卖出长期债券、降低组合的Duration),可以避免长期利率上升带来的影响。


如果说,想通过Bullet、Barbell这个表格来判断收益率曲线变动时,Barbell/bullet哪个表现更好,一定要保证收益率曲线的变动是最小单位的变动,就是收益率的变动就只有Level,slope, curvature这三个Factor里的一个,单纯的只有Parallel shift这一项变动,或者只有Steepening这一项变动,或者只有more curvature这一项等等。

如果同时出现Parallel shift和Steepening的变动,在利用表格里的结论分析时,需要稍微加以判断。

像我们这道题,他是Parallel shift的变动,再加上Steepening的变动,这两个变动对Bullet portfolio的影响又是冲突的,所以不能直接套用表格里的结论。

如果碰到我们这道题的这种收益率曲线是复合变动,需要通过分析组合的key rate duration(Partial PVBP)来分析组合的表现好坏,但是因为这道题选项比较简单,我们可以直接判断出来降低组合的Duration即可。


-------------------------------
就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


SUN · 2020年06月04日

谢谢,终于知道怎么回事了,之前纠结了很久。感谢

WallE_品职答疑助手 · 2020年06月02日

提到长期和短期,你想到的是Barbell, 不是让你采取Barbell strategy的策略。正因为你想到的是Barbell,当利率上升的时候你会有损失,所以更应该降低portfolio duration。

SUN · 2020年06月03日

麻烦看清楚我的问题再回答。

WallE_品职答疑助手 · 2020年06月01日

最后一句话的解释是对的。deltaP/P=-Duration*deltaY/y,当deltay/y上升时候,价格是降低的,所以要减少duration.

题目里面说dgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

提到的是一个短期,一个长期,想到的不应该是Barbell吗?

 

SUN · 2020年06月02日

????利率上升,barbell不是损失更大吗?

SUN · 2020年06月03日

答非所问

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