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我们 · 2020年04月23日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019042401000043

问题如下:

PZ has set up a defined benefit pension scheme with $150m in assets and $135m in liabilities.

We assme that:

The expected annual return of pension assets is 7.5percent. and the volatility is 10percent..

Debt is expected to grow at 5 percent a year and fluctuate at 4.5 percent.

The correlation coefficient between asset income and the growth of liability is 0.7.

Calculate the 95% surplus at risk of the pension.

选项:

A.

$14.62 million.

B.

$28.37 million.

C.

$20.12 million.

D.

$7.83 million.

解释:

A is correct.

考点:pension plan surplus at risk计算

解析:

第一步: 计算surplus 的预期增长

Expected surplus growth = growth in asstes – growth in liabilities

Expected surplus growth = ($150m x 0.075)-($135m x 0.05)

Expected surplus growth = $11.25m-6.75m= 4.5m

2019042401000043
第一步: 计算surplus 的预期增长
Expected surplus growth = growth in asstes – growth in liabilities
Expected surplus growth = ($150m * 0.075)-($135m *0.05)
Expected surplus growth = $11.25m-6.75m= 4.5 m


第二步: 计算组合的方差和标准差
Variance of surplus = (150*0.1)^2 + (135*0.045)^2 – 2*(150*0.1*135*0.045*0.7) = 134.33
Volatility of surplus =11.59


第三步:计算组合的VaR
Surplus at risk = 4.5 – 1.65*11.59 = -14.62 m

请问对于`W·这个weight,什么时候用dollar,什么时候用percent的形式呢?

之前有一个题算VAR的 σ 时候用的就是百分比(2.4/6=40%),但是它也给出了具体的金额,并没有直接用具体的金额来做。

这个题也给出了具体的金额,却直接用具体的金额作为weight来计算。

2 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2020年04月24日

对的

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2020年04月23日

同学你好,都可以的,结果也都一样。

这个完全看个人喜好,我是喜欢用具体金额算的。

当然你也可以根据选项判断是用百分比还是用具体金额。

我们 · 2020年04月24日

那就是说,如果在之前计算的时候用的百分比,最后用Z*σ的时候就要乘以dollar,如果之前就用了金额,最后就不用乘以dollar了,是吗

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