问题如下：
Based on Real Business Cycle models, which of the following may lead to an economic contraction:
选项：
A. decreased money supply.
B. increased oil prices.
C. technology progress.
解释：
B is correct.
Based on Real Business Cycle models, external shock is the main reason that causes an economy to expand or contract. The increased oil prices will lead to an increase of overall prices level, which may finally result in an economic contraction.
考点： Real Business Cycle models
解析： Real Business Cycle models 认为经济的运行好坏和货币发行量并无关系，所以A选项错误。
Real Business Cycle models 认为经济周期的产生与外部冲击息息相关。石油这类重要工业原材料价格的上涨会带来经济的衰退，所以B选项正确。
技术的进步带来的是经济的繁荣而非衰退，所以C选项错误。
石油这类重要工业原材料价格的上涨会带来经济的衰退? 这个结论我不敢苟同，看现在疫情全世界爆发油价狂跌，但是经济更加萧条。
