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中二 · 2020年03月16日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016082405000042 [ FRM II ]

问题如下:

Liz Parker is a junior quantitative analyst who is preparing a report dealing with credit migration. An excerpt of her report contains the following statements:

I. Future default probability will likely increase over time, especially for periods far into the future.

II. When computing the default probability of a counterparty under a risk-neutral measure, we need to first determine the actual default probability.

Which of Parker's statements is (are) correct?

选项:

A.

I only.

B.

II only.

C.

Both I and II.

D.

Neither I nor II.

解释:

D Future default probability will likely decrease over time, especially for periods far into the future. This is because of the higher likelihood that the default will have already occurred at some earlier point. In computing the default probability of a counterparty under a risk- neutral measure, one needs to compute the theoretical market-implied probability; the actual default probability applies under a real (historical) measure.

关于I的结论,上课时说过违约概率曲线是非单调递减函数,不是所有的违约概率都应该随着时间增加而增加吗?还是因为不知道它起初是投资级还是投机级,所以I错了?

1 个答案

袁园_品职助教 · 2020年03月17日

同学你好!

是的,I 的前半句是对的, 累计违约概率是都会增加,最终趋近于1的

后半句错了,它后半句说:尤其是在后期累计违约概率的增加的更快。这个增加的更快或更慢取决于公司本身的信用质量,如果他是投资级公司,他累计违约概率增加的是更快。吐过他是信用质量部好的投机级公司,它的累计违约概率是增加的 ,但它会增加的越来越慢。