问题如下:
4. What is the NPV (C$ millions) of the optimal set of investment decisions for Society Services including the expansion option?
选项:
A. 6.34.
B. 12.68.
C. 31.03.
解释:
B is correct.
Assume we are at time = 1. The NPV of the expansion (at time 1) if demand is "high" is
The NPV of the expansion (at time 1) if demand is "low" is
The optimal decision is to expand if demand is "high" and not expand if "low."
Because the expansion option is exercised only when its value is positive, which happens 50 percent of the time, the expected value of the expansion project, at time zero, is
The total NPV of the initial project and the expansion project is
NPV = –C$5.663 million + C$18.346 million = C$12.683 million
The optional expansion project, handled optimally, adds sufficient value to make this a positive NPV project.
老师,您讲解里提到的“我们这里讲的扩张期权就是赋予原项目的一个权力,是否执行这个权利要看老项目在一时刻的现金流。也就是只有原项目在一时刻现金流是high的时候才会选择行权(也就是原项目赚钱的情况下才会行权)”,有在题目里说吗?还是说赚钱才扩张是个常识?谢谢!