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doris · 2020年03月15日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016072602000032

问题如下:

Your bank calculates a one-day 95% VAR for market risk, a one-year 99% VAR for operational risk, and a one-year 99% VAR for credit risk. The measures are $100 million, $500 million, and $1 billion, respectively. Operational risk is defined to include all risks that are not market risks and credit risks, and these three categories are mutually uncorrelated. The market risk VAR assumes normally distributed returns, and the bank expects to be successful to keep its market risk VAR at that level for the whole year. Your boss wants your best estimate of a firmwide VAR at the 1% level. Among the following choices, your best estimate is:

选项:

A.

$1.7 billion

B.

$1.94 billion

C.

$2.50 billion

D.

It is impossible to aggregate risks with different distributions having only this information.

解释:

C is correct. First, we convert the daily VAR at the 95% level to the same parameters as the other. With the normality assumption, this is VARMKT = $100 x (2.326/ 1.645) 252\sqrt{252} = $2,245. We then combine the three VARs by taking the square root of the sum of squares, which gives VAR =$2,2452+$5002+$10002\sqrt{\$2,245^2+\$500^2+\$1000^2} = $2,458.

题目里也没说是求一年的var还是一天的var,不是time horizon没给吗?这种以后就默认是一天的?

1 个答案

袁园_品职助教 · 2020年03月16日

题目里求的是一年的,所以先把 one-day VaR 转换成了 one-year VaR

题目里有一句话 “ The market risk VAR assumes normally distributed returns, and the bank expects to be successful to keep its market risk VAR at that level for the whole year. ” 让我们有足够的依据用解析里的方法把 daily 95% 转化成与其他两个指标同样条件的 annual 99%

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