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王垚 · 2020年03月07日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016082405000101

问题如下:

The Merton model and the Moody's KMV model use different approaches to determine the probability of default. Which of the following is consistent with Moody’s KMV model?

选项:

A.

The distance to default is 1.96, so there is a 2.5% probability of default.

B.

The distance to default is 1.96, so there is a 5.0% probability of default.

C.

The historical frequency of default for corporate bonds has been 6%. Updating this with Altman's Z-score analysis would provide a probability of default that is somewhat different than 6%.

D.

The distance to default is 1.96 and, historically, 1.2% of firms with this characterization have defaulted, so there is a 1.2% probability of default.

解释:

D Moody’s KMV model evaluates the historical frequency of default for films with similar distances to default and uses this as the probability of default.

如何用Historical frequency算

1 个答案

袁园_品职助教 · 2020年03月08日

同学你好!

KMV模型算PD,是在算出DD后,把DD映射到Probability of default表上,而这个违约概率表是那个KMV公司根据 historical data总结出来的。