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alivia · 2020年03月07日

问一道题:NO.PZ2015121810000035

问题如下:

During a recession, the slope of the yield curve for default-free government bonds is most likely to:

选项:

A.

flatten.

B.

steepen.

C.

become inverted.

解释:

B is correct.

During a recession, short rates are often lower because central banks tend to lower their policy rate in these times because the output gap is likely to be negative. However, the impact of such monetary policy on longer-term rates will not be as strong, so long rates may not fall by as much as short rates. The central bank will usually be expected to bring short term rates back to normal as the recession recedes and the risk free rates will increase as economic growth recovers. Thus, the slope of the yield curve will typically steepen during a recession.  

考点:yield curve

解析:关键词During a recession,在经济衰退期,yield curve是变陡峭的,因为央行会降息,降息对短期利率的影响更大,导致yield curve steepen.

另一个结论是:An inverted yield curve is a predictor of recession。注意区分。

老师两个疑问

一是DURING RECESSION,是STEEPEN不一定是UPWARD是吗?我听何老师上课讲的好像是UPWARD。

二是BOND YIELD CURVE是不是不是DISCOUNTED RETURN.何老师讲经济不好的时候,大家都去买短期债券避险,导致短期债券价格上升,RETURN上升。所以这里不是DISCOUNTED RETURN下降是吗?两个概念搅在一起了。

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年03月08日

同学你好,

upward和steepen是一致的,可以理解为向上倾斜的收益率曲线变得更加倾斜(steepen),这里面思路是经济不好,央行降(短期)息刺激经济,所以短期利率下跌。

当经济极度差的时候,大家去买避险资产例如短期国债,这个时候短债的价格上升,导致收益率极度下降,yield curve变得更加陡峭。这几个结论都是一致的。

return的概念是income+capital gain,没有discount return这个概念。

discount rate是从债券发行人角度出发的,发债人已知未来现金流,折现来求定价的角度。对于投资者来说,这个概念就叫做required rate of return.