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tqcsummer · 2020年03月07日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019100901000007

问题如下:

Azarov’s second meeting is with John Spintop, chief investment officer of the Wolf University Endowment Fund (the Fund). Spintop hired Westcome to assist in developing a new investment policy to present to the Fund’s board of directors. The Fund, which has assets under management of $200 million, has an overall objective of maintaining long-term purchasing power while providing needed financial support to Wolf University. During the meeting, Spintop states that the Fund has an annual spending policy of paying out 4% of the Fund’s three-year rolling asset value to Wolf University, and the Fund’s risk tolerance should consider the following three liability characteristics:

The Fund has a small investment staff with limited experience in managing alternative assets and currently uses the Norway model for its investment approach. Azarov suggests a change in investment approach by making an allocation to externally managed alternative assets—namely, hedge funds and private equity. Ten-year nominal expected return assumptions for various asset classes, as well as three proposed allocations that include some allocation to alternative assets, are presented in Exhibit 1.

Expected inflation for the next 10 years is 2.5% annually.

Which proposed allocation in Exhibit 1 would be most appropriate for the Fund given its characteristics?

选项:

A.

Allocation 1

B.

Allocation 2

C.

Allocation 3

解释:

C is correct.

Allocation 3 is the most appropriate allocation for the Fund. The annual expected returns for the three allocations are as follows:

Allocation 1 exp. return = (0.45 × 4.1%) + (0.40 × 6.3%) + (0.10 × 7.5%) + (0.05 × 9.1%)= 5.57%.

Allocation 2 exp. return = (0.10 × 4.1%) + (0.15 × 6.3%) + (0.15 × 7.5%) + (0.30 × 5.0%) + (0.30 × 9.1%)= 6.71%.

Allocation 3 exp. return = (0.13 × 4.1%) + (0.32 × 6.3%) + (0.40 × 7.5%) + (0.05 × 5.0%) + (0.10 × 9.1%)= 6.71%.

The real return for Allocation 1 is 3.07% (= 5.57% – 2.50%), and the real return for Allocation 2 and Allocation 3 is 4.21% (= 6.71% – 2.50%).

Therefore, Allocation 1 is not appropriate because the expected real rate of return is less than the annual spending rate of 4%. With expected spending at 4%, the purchasing power of the Fund would be expected to decline over time with Allocation 1.

Allocations 2 and 3 both offer an expected real rate of return greater than the annual spending rate of 4%. Thus, the purchasing power of the Fund would be expected to grow over time with either allocation. However, Allocation 3 is more appropriate than Allocation 2 because of its lower allocation to alternative assets (hedge funds and private equity). The total 60% allocation to alternative assets in Allocation 2 is well above the 15% allocation in Allocation 3 and is likely too high considering the Fund’s small investment staff and its limited experience with managing alternative investments. Also, given the Fund’s relatively small size of assets under management ($200 million), access to top hedge funds and private equity managers is likely to be limited.

Azarov suggests a change in investment approach by making an allocation to externally managed alternative assets—namely, hedge funds and private equity. 从这句话来看,不是建议外包多投一些alternative吗?谢谢!

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年03月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


"Azarov suggests a change in investment approach by making an allocation to externally managed alternative assets—namely, hedge funds and private equity. 从这句话来看,不是建议外包多投一些alternative吗?谢谢!"


这道题是这样,当前状态下,组合用的是Norway model,也就是Equity/Fixed-income =60%/40%的策略。

然后现在要改变这种策略,说是加入一些Alternative investments,从表格给的三个备选Portfolio来看,Allocation 1/2/3都是增加了Alternative investments,所以初步判断三个Portfolio都OK。然后我们就算一下三个Allocation的Expected return是多少,经过计算之后,发现allocation 1的收益太低,排除;allocation 2与Allocation 3的收益一样,为6.71%;


所以要在Allocation 2与Allocation 3里面选一个,这里面选择的标准就是:在收益率一样的情况下,我们优先选择Alternative investments占比低的那个Portfolio。


因为另类投资,比如Private equity,hedge fund,流动性比Equity和Fixed income差很多,所以既然2个Portfolio的收益一样,我们就选流动性更好的那个。

除此之外,如答案所说,本题是一个小基金,另类投资需要专业的知识,题干有说他们团队不具备投资另类产品的能力;

此外,因为他们是小基金,很难聘请得到top manager来管理另类投资;所以他们投另类资产也是有一些限制的。

于是Allocation 2/3在收益一样的情况下,我们只能选择Alternative占比少的那个。参考答案:

The total 60% allocation to alternative assets in Allocation 2 is well above the 15% allocation in Allocation 3 and is likely too high considering the Fund’s small investment staff and its limited experience with managing alternative investments. Also, given the Fund’s relatively small size of assets under management ($200 million), access to top hedge funds and private equity managers is likely to be limited.



这道题也是一类题型,原则就是,如果要在几个Portfolio里面选最优的组合,恰好两个Portfolio产生的收益一样,我们选择另类占比较小的那个。


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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!


每天都想出坑的铁头娃 · 2021年04月29日

简单来说就是收益率相同的情况下,没必要冒那么大的风险投资30%的PE。算个30%的金额很容易,但是以这个IC的能力来说,这30%能不能找到真正的PE大牛真的是个问题。

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