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土豆牛腩 · 2020年02月28日

问一道题:NO.PZ201720190200000203

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

3. Based on Exhibit 1 and Yamata’s research on the energy sector, the shape of the futures price curve for Brent crude oil is most consistent with the:

选项:

A.

insurance theory.

B.

theory of storage.

C.

hedging pressure hypothesis.

解释:

B is correct.

The Brent crude oil futures market is in a state of backwardation: The spot price is greater than the price of near-term (i.e., nearest-to-expiration) futures contracts. Commodities (in this case, Brent crude oil) are physical assets, not virtual assets, such as stocks and bonds. Physical assets have to be stored, and storage incurs costs (rent, insurance, inspections, spoilage, etc.). According to the theory of storage, a commodity that is consumed along a value chain that allows for just-in-time delivery and use (i.e., minimal inventories and storage) can avoid these costs. Yamata’s research concluded that energy is consumed on a real-time basis and requires minimal storage. In this situation, demand dominates supply, and current prices are higher than futures prices (state of backwardation).

他的研究里面也有这句话“Consumers have been more concerned about prices than producers have.” 讲到了对冲, 那么B为什么不对?

土豆牛腩 · 2020年02月28日

不好意思,是C为什么不对?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

xiaowan_品职助教 · 2020年02月28日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好,这道题就是选B哈,根据theory of storage: future price = spot price + storage cost - convenience yield,

题目中说,storage cost 很小,而消费是实时发生的,说明对现货的需求很大,convenience yield会比较大,所以期货价格会低于现货,也就会呈现出backwardation的结构,与题干中所给的价格结构相一致。

我猜你是想问C,C选项得出的结论和题干中给出的backwardation不一致,Consumers have been more concerned about prices than producers have,说明买方的动能高于卖方,更容易出现contango的结构。


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fresh · 2022年07月02日

老师,请教下 现货,convenience yield 比较大 是什么意思?

Lucky_品职助教 · 2022年07月02日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


回复fresh:

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