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zjcjrd · 2020年02月27日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016070201000062 [ FRM II ]

问题如下:

Suppose investors have interest rate expectations as illustrated in the decision tree below where the 1-year rate is expected to be 8%, 6%, or 4% in the second year and either 7% or 5% in the first year for a zero-coupon bond.

If investors are risk-neutral, what is the price of a $1 face value 2-year zero-coupon bond today?

选项:

A.

$0.88113.

B.

$0.88634.

C.

$0.89007.

D.

$0.89032.

解释:

Assuming investors are risk-neutral, the following decision tree illustrates the calculation of the price of a 2-year zero-coupon bond using the expected rates given. The expected price in one year for the upper node is $0.93458, calculated as $1 / 1.07. The expected price in one year for the lower node is $0.95238, calculated as $1 / 1.05. Thus, the current price is $0.89007, calculated as:

[0.5 x ($0.93458 / 1.06)] + [0.5 x ($0.95238 / 1.06)] = $0.89007

这种题目我总是搞不清楚应该用第几期的利率进行折现,有没有什么记忆口诀
1 个答案

orange品职答疑助手 · 2020年02月28日

同学你好,本题里给的最右边的利率8%,6%,4%只是起干扰作用的,因为,在二叉树每一个节点上的利率,管的都是这个节点到下个节点之间的利率,所以它管的其实是2-3年这个过程。从第2年折现到第1年,应该用t=1时二叉树节点上的利率,因为t=1时二叉树节点上的利率管的是第1年-第2年。

将第N年的现金流折现到第N-1年所用的利率,应该是二叉树节点上t=N-1的利率。