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我叫仙人涨 · 2020年02月26日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512181000007202

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问题如下:

In Statement 2, Kynnersley implies that the portfolio:

选项:

A.

is at risk of losing $4,500 each trading day

B.

value is expected to decline by $90,000 or more once in 20 trading days.

C.

has a 5% chance of falling in value by a maximum of $90,000 on a single trading day.

解释:

B is correct. Value at risk is the minimum loss that would be expected a certain percentage of the time over a certain period of time. Statement 2 implies that there is a 5% chance the portfolio will fall in value by $90,000 (= $6,000,000 ×1.5%) or more in a single day. If VaR is measured on a daily basis and a typical month has 20–22 business days, then 5% of the days equates to about 1 day per month or once in 20 trading days.

老师,这个5% of one day = once per month (1 day out of 20 days is 5% of the month) 我懂

但是要是转换成月的概念,我们不是应该用那种 miu * 20 - sigma * sq root 20 么?


为什么monthly mini loss和dialy minimum loss 一样呢?

3 个答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2020年07月11日

同学你好,在计算VAR的时候我们是要把平均收益率以及sigma进行转换,这个代表的是损失的数值。对应的是在某个概率下的临界值。

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2020年02月28日

是的,是要计算…只是计算结果是一个数值临界值。

我叫仙人涨 · 2020年02月29日

对呀,所以不应该用6m * 1.9这个明明是天化的临界值来当成月化的用呀?

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2020年02月27日

同学你好,本题考查对于VaR的理解和转换。根据VaR的计算公式=-(mean-sigma*standard deviation)算出来的值,是在95%的情况下平均每天的损失不超过这个VaR的数值;也可以说是5%的情况下每天会超过这个数值。如果假定一个月有20天,那么平均每个月有一天损失的数值会超过这个VaR的数值。所以VaR是一个临界值,5%是一段时间内超过这个临界值的概率,希望可以帮到你。

我叫仙人涨 · 2020年02月27日

但是何老师说把天化转化成月和年都要用平均收益乘以天数, sigma乘以square root of 天数呀?应该用那个转换天数的公式才对呀

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