问题如下:
If interest rate spread between long-term government bonds and overnight borrowing rate is narrowing, new orders for captial goods begins to decline, the economy has reached its :
选项:
A.peak.
B.recession.
C.recovery.
解释:
A is correct.
Interest rate spread between long-term government bonds and overnight borrowing rate and new orders for captial goods are leading indicators, the decline of them means the economy has reached the peak.
考点: economic indicators
解析:长期债与隔夜拆解利率之间的利差缩小表明短期利率上涨(抑制投资)或者长期利率下降(人们对于未来经济看衰),经济开始走弱。
同样new orders for captial goods的下降也表明总需求在下降,经济由强转弱。那么经济已经经历过了顶点,A选项入选。
长期国债和隔夜利率的差变小,说明利率很高,不是应该是recession期吗?为什么是peak 还处于顶峰那?