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jianghaiyang · 2020年02月24日

问一道题:NO.PZ201902210100000106

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

If Winslow is allowed to hedge into any of the currencies, she can obtain the highest expected returns by

选项:

A.

buying the Greek 5-year in each portfolio and hedging it into Pesos.

B.

buying the Greek 5-year in each portfolio and hedging it into USD.

C.

buying the Mexican 5-year in each portfolio and not hedging the currency.

解释:

A is correct.

As shown in the previous question, the Greek bond is the most attractive. Although the Peso is expected to depreciate by 2% against the EUR and the GBP and by 1% against the USD, this is less than the benefit of hedging EUR into MXN (+3.475%). The net currency component of the expected return is +1.475% = (3.475% – 2.0%) for the EUR and GBP portfolios and +2.475% = (3.475% – 1.0%) for the USD-denominated portfolio. Hedging into GBP would add only 0.175% for any of the portfolios. Hedging into USD would reduce expected return for any of the portfolios because the pick up on the hedge (+0.625%) is less than the expected depreciation (–1.0%) of the USD against the Euro and GBP.

B is incorrect. Hedging the Euro-denominated Greek bond into USD would reduce expected return for any of the portfolios because the pick on the hedge (+0.625%) is less than the expected depreciation of the USD against the Euro and GBP.

C is incorrect. As shown above, the Greek bond is more attractive than the Mexican bond.

请问怎么看出来希腊五年期的利率是最attractive的?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2020年02月25日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


“请问怎么看出来希腊五年期的利率是最attractive的?“


这道题选项只出现了MXN与Greek bond,所以我们只需比较他俩的收益即可。

但是MXN债券与Greek bond的计价货币不一样,所以他俩的收益率不能直接比较,所以,我们就把他们的收益Hedge成一个Common currency进行比较,目的是统一标准。

第一步,先算两个债券的Local currency return。

在前面的回复中,已经算过了MXN债券的Local currency return = 4.576%

那我们算一下Greek bond的Local currency return。

因为题干信息有说,希腊的利率在未来半年保持稳定:

Winslow expects yields in the US, Euro, UK, and Greek markets to remain stable over the next six months.

希腊债3 year 至 5 year的利率都一样,所以3至 5 year的利率曲线是一条水平线,于是投资半年卖出希腊债时,债券对应的折现率依然是5.70%;

表格里的利率是使得债券价格等于面值的折现率,所以卖出希腊债时,折现率依然是5.70%,所以可以知道希腊债是以面值卖出。

所以,于是希腊债是面值买入,面值卖出,所以赚取一个Coupon rate,所以半年的收益为:5.70%/2 = 2.85%

希腊债时EUR收益,MXN是比索收益,我们把MXN hedge成EUR,使用Forward将MXN hedge成EUR产生的收益为:(0.15%-7.10%)/2 = -3.475%

所以,以EUR衡量的MXN债券收益为: 4.576% - 3.475% = 1.101%

Greek bond的收益是:2.85%,所以希腊债最优。我们给所有的Portfolio,无论是GBP-Based/EUR-Based/USD-Based,都买入这支希腊债券。




这道小题是默认Greek bond就是最优,因为原本这是一道课后题Case题,前几问中已经算出来了Greek bond最优,判断他最好的方法就是上面的解释。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


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