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vivian_zm · 2020年02月24日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016082405000027

问题如下:

An. analyst has noted that the default frequency in the pharmaceutical industry has been constant at 8% for an extended period of time. Based on this information, which of the following statements is most likely correct for a randomly selected firm following a Bernoulli distribution?

I.       The cumulative probability that a randomly selected firm in the pharmaceutical industry will default is constant.

II.     The probability that the firm survives for the next 6 years without default is approximately 60%.

选项:

A.

I only.

B.

II only.

C.

Both I and II.

D.

Neither I nor II.

解释:

B Statement I is false because the cumulative probability of default increases (i.e., even the highest rated companies will eventually fail over a long enough period). Statement II is true since the probability the firm survives over the next 6 years without default is: (1 - 0.08)6 = 60.6%

请问第二问可以用连续复利来计算吗?e^(-8%*6)≈61.8%

1 个答案
已采纳答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2020年02月24日

同学你好,我觉得不能,这是一个离散的二项分布的概率问题,不是一个连续复利的收益率问题。