问一道题：NO.PZ2015120604000178

问题如下：

BIM is a well-developed public company and its market capitalization growth rates over past few decades are normally distributed.The population has a mean of 10% and a standard deviation of 5.4%. An investor wants to figure out the probability that BIM's average capitalization growth rate will over 12.32% in the next three years (all the data are monthly statistics).Which of the following option is most accurate?

选项：

0.5%.

1%.

5%.

解释：

A is correct.

It is appropriate to use the central limit theroy to calculate.

$S_{x} = \frac{σ}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{5.4 %}{\sqrt{36}} = 0.009$

The test statistic= (12.32%-10%)/0.009=2.58. So the corresponding probability is 0.5%.

答案为什么是单边的0.5%，而不是1%那？

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1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年02月19日

同学你好，

可以从2.58对应的是99%的置信区间这个角度去想，由于中间的“区间”面积是99%，所以两边的总面积就是1%，所以单侧面积都是0.5%。

本题求的是Z＞2.58的概率，所以就是右边单侧面积，即0.5%，

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问一道题：NO.PZ2015120604000178

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