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蔡小工 · 2020年02月15日

问一道题:NO.PZ2015121810000027

问题如下:

The prices of one-period, real default-free government bonds are likely to be most sensitive to changes in:

选项:

A.

investors’ inflation expectations.

B.

the expected volatility of economic growth.

C.

the covariance between investors’ inter-temporal rates of substitution and the expected future prices of the bonds.

解释:

B is correct.

Only changes in default-free real interest rates will affect the price of real, default-free bonds. The average level of default-free real interest rates is positively related to the volatility of economic growth in the economy; thus, changes in the expected volatility of economic growth would likely lead to changes in real default-free real interest rates, which in turn would affect the prices of real, default-free government bonds.

考点:Discount Rate on Real Default-free Bonds

解析:排除法

A, real bonds不会受到通货膨胀的影响,nominal bonds才会。

B,volatility of economic growth影响分母l,即real default-free interest rate,所以B正确

C,one-period的债券价格不受covariance的影响,因为one-period default free bond的covariance=0。只有多期债券才会受covariance影响。

老师,还是有点没太搞清楚:

  1. 讨论Real Default-free Interest Rate时,当经济向好/增速,Real Default-free Interest Rate会上升,但当增速不确定性增加时,Real Interest Rate会增加。
  2. 讨论Equity Risk Premium时,当经济向好/增速,又特别强调此时Real Interest Rate会因增速不确定性下降而下降。

我想问:

  1. Real Default-free Interest RateReal Interest Rate
  2. 在做题时,应该怎么去判别应该?
1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年02月16日

同学你好,

如果题干中没有特殊强调,一遍你说的这两者是同一回事。一般real interest rate bond都是国债或者说TIPS,基本上也没有default risk。

 

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