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娟娟考CFA · 2020年02月15日

问一道题:NO.PZ201710100100000307

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

7 Based on Exhibit 2, if Carlisle’s prediction for Country #3 is realized, then over the next 12 months:

选项:

A.

Bond A would be expected to outperform Bond C.

B.

Bond B would be expected to outperform Bond A.

C.

Bond C would be expected to outperform Bond B.

解释:

A is correct.

If Country #3 experiences a recession over the next 12 months, the credit spreads for corporate bonds would be expected to widen as investors sell the low-quality debt of issuers with high default risk and trade up to the higher-quality debt of issuers with low default risk. The issuers with a good credit rating (like Aaa rated Bond A) tend to outperform those with lower ratings (like B3 rated Bond C) as the spread between low and higher quality issuers widens. As a result, Bond A would be expected to outperform Bond C over the next 12 months

考点:Credit Premiums and The Business Cycle

解析: 当经济衰退时,评级高的债券表现更好。表中bond A评级最高,因此选A。

老师,你好,想将这题和case的前一题放在一起提问,两题的前提假设都是这个prediction of country #3 is realized,那为什么前一题从复苏角度考虑,此题从在recession中债券的表现来考虑?谢谢

2 个答案

游洋 · 2020年11月21日

题目里衰退确实发生了,但是要持续12个月。从这个角度理解和上一个小题所说的是一个意思,都是假设衰退已经发生了。

星星_品职助教 · 2020年02月15日

同学你好,

本题的思路是经济下滑,违约风险上升,所以投资者去买更安全的债券。所以信用评价最高的A价格上升,表现最好。

上一题的思路是经济下滑,央行降息去刺激经济,所以短期利率下降,yield curve向上倾斜且变陡峭。

这两个题的角度不同,但是都是考虑的是经济下滑。

下次同时问两道题的话可以把另一道题也贴个图,不然不确定是哪个题。