问一道题：NO.PZ2015120604000178

问题如下：

BIM is a well-developed public company and its market capitalization growth rates over past few decades are normally distributed.The population has a mean of 10% and a standard deviation of 5.4%. An investor wants to figure out the probability that BIM's average capitalization growth rate will over 12.32% in the next three years (all the data are monthly statistics).Which of the following option is most accurate?

选项：

0.5%.

1%.

5%.

解释：

A is correct.

It is appropriate to use the central limit theroy to calculate.

$S_{x} = \frac{σ}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{5.4 %}{\sqrt{36}} = 0.009$

The test statistic= (12.32%-10%)/0.009=2.58. So the corresponding probability is 0.5%.

实际算出来的test statistic为2.5778，比99%置信度的2.58小，会接受原假设。不应该选B吗？

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1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年02月14日

同学你好，

这道题考察的是正态分布标准化，因为算出来的标准化值近似于2.58，所以相当于求Z＞2.58的概率，也就是0.5%。

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问一道题：NO.PZ2015120604000178

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