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月乔DD · 2020年02月11日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512181000007103

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

To perform Analysis 1, McKee should use historical bond:

选项:

A.

prices.

B.

yields.

C.

durations.

解释:

B is correct. In order to simulate the impact of the latest financial crisis on the current bond portfolio holdings, McKee’s valuation model for bonds should use the historical yields of bonds with similar maturity. Historical yields drive the
pricing of bonds more than the price history or the current duration. Historical prices for the fixed-income positions currently held in the portfolio may not exist, and even when historical prices do exist, they may not be relevant to the current characteristics (e.g., maturity) of the instrument. Even if the same bonds existed at the time of the latest financial crisis, their durations would change because of the passage of time.

A is incorrect because using a bond’s past price history would mischaracterize the risk of the current portfolio holdings. For this reason, the historical yields are more important in explaining the risks. Historical prices for the fixedincome positions currently held in the portfolio may not exist, and even when historical prices do exist, they may not be relevant to the current characteristics (e.g., maturity) of the instrument.

C is incorrect because historical bond durations would not capture the current characteristics of the bonds in the portfolio. Duration is a sensitivity measure and is the weighted-average time to maturity of a bond. Even if the same bonds existed at the time of the latest financial crisis, their remaining time to maturity and durations would change because of the passage of time.

麻烦解释一下下面这句话,不是很明白:Historical prices for the fixed-income positions currently held in the portfolio may not exist, and even when historical prices do exist, they may not be relevant to the current characteristics (e.g., maturity) of the instrument. Even if the same bonds existed at the time of the latest financial crisis, their durations would change because of the passage of time.

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年02月12日

同学你好,

这句话的意思就是如果用情景分析来模拟financial crisis的情况,最好的选择是用当时的yield,因为当时的价格和duration都没有代表性,价格和duration都可能反应了其他因素。

其实就是用当时的yield相对来说最好的意思,可以当做结论

wenxing · 2020年03月03日

为啥另外两个没有代表?

星星_品职助教 · 2020年03月03日

可以参考答案解析,历史的价格/duration需要和当初一样的bond构成,这个条件未必满足。

月乔DD · 2020年03月15日

可以解释一下答案分析的意思么。我知道答案说的是price 和 duration不能代表。但解析里面说的理由不是很懂。

星星_品职助教 · 2020年03月15日

这个是个结论,也没法更深入分析了,这个考点也不重要,记忆一下吧