问题如下:
Stock return of PZ Company is 7% in 2017. Analyst wants to calculate PZ company stock’s expected return, the portion of the stock’s return not explained by the factor model was 5%, Please using macroeconomic factor model based on the following table data:
选项: -1.5%
1.5%
C.2%
解释:
A is correct.
考点:多因素模型下的宏观多因子回归模型.
解析:先写出模型的公式:Ri=ai+bi1*F1+bi2*F2+εi
然后再回忆一下宏观经济模型的特性,Ri是真实的回报率,ai是expected return,b是回归出来的factor sensitivity, F是真实的数据即surprise=actual – predicted,残差项是模型里不能解释应变量的部分。
把表格中的数据代入公式:7%=ai+(6%-7%)*1.5+(3%-5%)*(-2.5)+5%
可以计算得出expected return= -1.5%
宏观模型中的R不是回归出来的么?
为什么答案说是真实的?